U.S. REITs: 1Q26 Net Lease REIT Recap

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U.S. REITs: 1Q26 Net Lease REIT Recap

Equity Research

19 May 2026

U.S. REITs

1Q26 Net Lease REIT Recap

Muted recent share price performance likely attributable to a

steepening yield curve + our view that the buy-side was

already "there" into the 1Q earnings prints. U.S. REITs NEUTRAL

Unchanged

Following the conclusion of 1Q26 earnings season, we are increasing FY26 AFFO/sh estimates U.S. REITs

across our Net Lease coverage by an average of +0.4%, with our FY27 and FY28 estimates Richard Hightower

minimally changed vs. prior (Figure 1). We are now +0.4% above BBG CONS estimates in 2026, +1 212 526 8768

while closer to in line for 2027 (Figure 16). richard.hightower@barclays.com

BCI, US

Net Lease has been one of the weaker-performing REIT sectors on a trailing 30D/60D/90D basis Jason Wayne, CFA

(Figure 9) – partly, in our view, on the group's added sensitivity to interest rates against a +1 212 526 2650

steepening yield curve (Figure 14), but also potentially on the idea that the buy-side was already jason.wayne@barclays.com

"there" ahead of the 1Q prints. (The average stock reaction to Net Lease earnings was muted, in BCI, US

proportion to the change in FY26 guidance, relative to what we saw across other REIT sectors.) Marc Akinbi, CFA

Indeed, we pondered, just ahead of 1Q earnings season, whether the Net Lease REITs in +1 212 526 6218

particular were pricing in a 'goldilocks' scenario, and how long it might last. marc.akinbi@barclays.com

Our ratings within Net Lease are unchanged; we remain Overweight EPRT, GLPI, and VICI; Equal

Weight O, FCPT, and ADC; and Underweight WPC and NNN.

We lay out company-specific key themes from 1Q26 earnings season in Figure 2-Figure 6 below,

but to summarize here: