Building momentum

研报英文原文证据摘录

Building momentum

Equity Research - 20 May 2026 06:34 CEST

Reasons:Oncopeptides

Estimate changes

Building momentum Post-results comment

Case refresher

• Strong Q1 performance and enhanced outlook

• Full model update following change of analyst

• Balanced risk/reward: HOLD, TP of SEK 2 (14)

Strong Q1 and improved outlook

For Q1, ONCO reported revenues of SEK 25m, representing 91% y-o-y Healthcare

growth, and EBIT of SEK -38m (no consensus available for either figure).

Following the net SEK 170m rights issue in February, cash at end-Q1’26 ONCO-SE/ONCO SS

amounted to SEK 205m. ONCO has stated that its cash runway should Share price (SEK) 18/5/2026 1.91

support operations until expected positive cash flow in late '27. Target price (14.00) 2.00

ONCO has seen several recent positive developments. In Europe, the

company intends to pursue a 3L label expansion for Pepaxti (melflufen) MCap (SEKm) 727

that could potentially double the target population. In glioblastoma, ONCO

MCap (EURm) 69

is advancing a window-of-opportunity study with melflufen, targeting a

No. of shares (m) 387.9market projected to grow from ~USD 4bn to USD ~8bn by '34. In Japan,

a partnership deal could materialise within the next year, with royalties Free float (%) 64.9

potentially commencing as early as ~2 years post-signing (after a final Av. daily volume (k) 466

partner-funded clinical development).

Next event Q2 report 27 August 2026

Model updates

We make several updates to our model following a recent change of Performance

analyst. Key assumptions include: i) country-level modelling across

EU4+UK and Japan, with regional based modelling for the remaining 7.00

European markets; ii) peak penetration of 5-25% in the target population 6.00