Hanold's Weekly U.S. E&P Comps & Sentiment

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Hanold's Weekly U.S. E&P Comps & Sentiment

RBC Capital Markets, LLC

Scott Hanold (Analyst)

(512) 708-6354,

scott.hanold@rbccm.com

Samuel Cox (Senior

Associate)

(512) 708-6309,

samuel.cox@rbccm.com

May 14, 2026 Octavian Jordan (AVP)

(212) 618-3012,

octavian.jordan@rbccm.com Hanold's Weekly U.S. E&P Comps & SentimentRESEARCH Weekly Valuation Update: May 14, 2026

Our view: Oil prices remain elevated with the Middle East conflict showing no signs of a clear resolution.

Front month trades at $102/$107 per bbl (WTI/Brent) and 2027 futures are a 'healthy' $76/$82. The

IEA forecasts a 1.8 MMb/d supply deficit through 2026, from the prior 1H26 oversupplied market view.

The US EIA's Short Term Outlook indicated 2026 US oil production at 13.6 MMb/d, increasing by 500

Mb/d to 14.1 MMb/d in 2027. The forecast anticipates producers increase activity in response to the

current call on oil barrels. At this point there are a few small upward deviations from public companies,

but elevated oil prices likely shift more producers to a growth model later this year and into 2027. AnEQUITY

upcoming Permian federal lease sale next week (May 20) could draw significant interest with 33,530

acres coming to auction (link). The parcels are in core areas with no developed wells and lower royalties

(compared to fee/state leases). We estimate total sale value could eclipse $3 billion assuming ~$100k/

acre market (based on historical core deals). Over the last week, oil-weighted E&Ps rose 2% and gas-

weighted E&Ps 1%. Large caps climbed 3%, with SMid caps up 1%. The XOP rose 2% with oil (WTI) up

8% and natural gas (HH) 5% higher.

Investor sentiment: Energy specialists (long-only/HF) remain constructive on higher oil prices over the