ILMN: Clinical Acceleration + Fading Competitive Concerns; Resume Coverage at Outperform

研报英文原文证据摘录

ILMN: Clinical Acceleration + Fading Competitive Concerns; Resume Coverage at Outperform

RBC Capital Markets, LLC

Dan Leonard (Analyst)

(212) 858-7065, dan.leonard@rbccm.com

Outperform

NASDAQ: ILMN; USD 145.00 May 14, 2026

Illumina, Inc PriceScenarioTargetAnalysis*USD 170.00RESEARCH Clinical Acceleration + Fading Competitive Downside Current Price Upside

Concerns; Resume Coverage at Outperform Scenario Price Target Scenario

125.00 145.00 170.00 245.00

Our view: We resume coverage of Illumina (ILMN) with an Outperform 14% 17% 69%

rating and $170 price target. Our constructive view is underpinned by *Implied Total Returns

building clinical momentum and fading competitive concerns. Mid-teens Key Statistics

clinical growth appears sustainable over the next 1-2 years, driven largely Shares O/S (MM): 154.0 Market Cap (MM): 22,330

by oncology testing and screening applications. With clinical momentum Dividend: 0.00 Yield: 0.0%

Avg. Daily Volume: 1,531,870EQUITY building and competitive risks receding, we see a favorable risk/reward for

Illumina at current levels. RBC Estimates

FY Dec 2025A 2026E 2027E

Key points: Revenue 4,343.0 4,554.0 4,843.2

Clinical acceleration should be durable. Clinical markets now comprise EBITDA, Adj 1,208.0 1,273.6 1,413.3

>50% of Illumina's sales (65% of sequencing consumables), and growth EV/ EBITDA, Adj 19.1x 18.1x 16.3x

has accelerated from mid-single digits in 1H 2025 to 20% in each of EPS, Adj Diluted 4.85 5.27 6.17

the past two quarters (ex China). We believe a mid-teens growth rate in P/AEPS 29.9x 27.5x 23.5x

clinical consumables is sustainable, supported by robust growth forecasts Revenue Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

for Illumina's oncology customers (e.g., Natera, Guardant Health, Tempus, 2025 1,041.0A 1,059.0A 1,084.0A 1,159.0A

Caris, GRAIL).