CTC.A: Meeting Canadians where they are: Solid start to 2026, underlying outlook resilient, PT to $216

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CTC.A: Meeting Canadians where they are: Solid start to 2026, underlying outlook resilient, PT to $216

Canadian Tire Corporation

Target/Upside/Downside Scenarios Investment summary

Solid revenue trends despite cautious consumer spending.Canadian Tire Corporation

CTC sustaining and building on market share gains since

240 125 Weeks 22DEC23 - 13MAY26 that accelerated post-pandemic, driven by category re-sets,

220 TARGETTARGET 216.00216.00 strategic partnerships, focus on building private brands to

200 ensure a differentiated offering that resonates, and effective

180 CURRENTCURRENT 176.48176.48 use of 1st party data/Triangle Rewards. CTC effectively

140 capturing share of wallet, and stepped up investments

120 in data analytics to establish stronger direct-to-consumer

100 communications and promotions gaining traction. With

80 incremental focus on delivering value, CTC generating retail

4m 3m sales growth ahead of broader spending growth metrics,

2m 1m although we caution that evolving macroeconomic and

2024 2025 2026 D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M geopolitical backdrop could moderate cadence.

CTC/A CN Rel. S&P/TSX COMP IDX MA 40 weeks

Source: Bloomberg and RBC Capital Markets estimates for Target Focus on protecting margins paying off, NT spending

Valuation related to True North will drive stepped-up SG&A,

Our $216 price target is based on a sum-of-the-parts moderating operating leverage. CTC reoriented its approach

methodology whereby we apply: (i) 6.0x TTM Q3/F27E EBITDA to product sourcing to strengthen its product selection

(ex distribution from REIT) from the retail business, a discount while simultaneously protecting margins, driving stable

to peers and above the current NTM trading multiple, gross margins.