Outokumpu Oyj: Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Outokumpu Oyj: Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

Risk Reward – Outokumpu Oyj (OUT1V.HE)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS CATALYST CALENDAR

Drivers 2025 2026e 2027e 2028e Date Event Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley

FerroChrome Prices (US$/lb) 22.04 22.60 19.00 18.00 30 Jul 2026 Half Year 2026 Outokumpu Oyj Earnings Release

Nickel Prices (US$/lb) 14,971.57 16,706.25 16,500.00 16,500.00 06 Nov 2026 Q3 2026 Outokumpu Oyj Earnings Release

Stainless Steel Shipments (kt) 1,751 1,875 1,981 2,027

Adjusted EBITDA/t (US$/t) 95 215 283 304

USD/EUR 1.12 1.17 1.18 1.19

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

Base stainless steel prices: every $10/t change in RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Dec 2026e

stainless steel prices adds €38mn or 9% to European and North American demand 403 2025e EBITDA surprising to the upside EBITDA

Every $0.01/lb change to the European Earnings diversification beyond stainless e.g. (€, mn) 266 514

benchmark translates into €1mn/quarter EBITDA into alloys 389

change Robust FCF conversion leading to superior cash

Demand recovery in Europe and the US returns 0.19

EPS

0.06 0.38 RISKS TO DOWNSIDE (€)

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE 0.21 Large-scale capex not geared towards

attractive geographies/products

APAC, ex Japan, Mainland 0-10% Demand slowdown and increased imports in Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates China and India

20-30% North America Europe/North America Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

60-70% Europe ex UK Further operational issues at Calvert

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate OWNERSHIP POSITIONING

View explanation of regional hierarchies here

Inst. Owners, % Active 76.6%

MS ALPHA MODELS HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 1.6x

HF Sector Net Exposure 2.5%

2/5 3 Month Refinitiv; MSPB Content. Includes certain hedge fund MOST Horizon

exposures held with MSPB.