Boliden: Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Boliden: Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

Risk Reward – Boliden (BOL.ST)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS CATALYST CALENDAR

Drivers 2025 2026e 2027e 2028e Date Event Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley

Copper mined production (kt) 266 290 529 545 21 Jul 2026 Q2 26 Interim report

Zinc mined production (kt) 808 885 1,041 1,073 29 Oct 2026 Q3 2026 Boliden AB Earnings Release

Smelter EBITDA Margin (%) 6.3 6.7 6.7 7.2

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

SEK/USD exchange rate: we estimate a 10% RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Dec 2026e

change in SEK/USD is worth ~11% to EBITDA Repricing of jurisdictional risks (esp. across 26,216 and ~21% to EPS LatAm), favouring Boliden's Nordic metal EBITDA

Copper and zinc prices; production volume; cash exposure (SKr, mn) 19,779 33,693

costs; changes in smelting fees China growing faster than our base case 26,163

Deployment of a rapidly rising cash balance to expectation, resulting in higher commodity

generate further returns prices 16,780

EBIT

Growth projects completed on time 10,202 24,128

(SKr, mn)

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE and on budget 16,370

RISKS TO DOWNSIDE

0-10% Mainland China Rising cost inflation and labour contract resets 41.21 0-10% North America EPS

Operational disappointments across mines and 26.82 64.34 10-20% UK (SKr)

smelters 40.98 70-80% Europe ex UK

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate OWNERSHIP POSITIONING 13.06

DPS

View explanation of regional hierarchies here 11.00 17.82

Inst. Owners, % Active 61.1% (SKr)

13.90

HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 1.6x

HF Sector Net Exposure 2.5% Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

Refinitiv; MSPB Content. Includes certain hedge fund

exposures held with MSPB. Information may be

inconsistent with or may not reflect broader market

trends.