Q1 Cash Flow In Line; Boumadine PEA Update Advancing

研报英文原文证据摘录

Q1 Cash Flow In Line; Boumadine PEA Update Advancing

gounder processed 327kt at 140g/t, slightly below our Silver Eq. Prd 1,646 4,975 6,402↓ 7,061

forecast of 333kt at 148g/t. Production was impacted by weather events during the AISC AgEq ($/ $29.83 $30.81 $28.91↓ $23.17↑

quarter that impacted crusher throughput at Zgounder and ore shipping at Boumadine; oz)

the company has added temporary crushing capacity to mitigate any impact going

Valuation

forward. Aya increased its stockpile at Zgounder by 44% to 280.8kt, and reiterated

consolidated guidance of 6.2-6.8Moz AgEq. 2024A 2025A 2026E 2027E

P/E NA NA 15.3x 15.0xCosts beat our estimates. Cash costs averaged $18.40/oz, with Zgounder averaging

$18.64/oz, better than our $21.51/oz forecast. Costs were positively impacted by a low P/CFPS NA 34.3x 12.4x 12.9x

strip ratio at Zgounder of 9:1, as mining focused on low-strip areas of the pit during TSF EV/EBITDA NM 28.4x 10.3x 9.9x

construction and due to weather-related limitations. Open pit and underground mining QTR. EPS Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

rates yielded a record 4,575tpd. Cost guidance of approximately $21.50/oz at Zgounder

2024A $(0.01) $0.02 $(0.01) $(0.01)

was reiterated, with the strip ratio expected to increase compared to Q1.

2025A $0.01 $0.02 $0.09 $0.20

Aya generated $70M of operating cash flow in Q1, in line with our $72M forecast.

2026E $0.34a $0.37 $0.35 $0.33We calculate FCF of $53.4M compared to our $50.8M forecast. The company ended

Q1 with $172M in cash and equivalents, positioning Aya well to continue funding 2027E $0.37 $0.38 $0.35 $0.31

exploration at Zgounder and exploration/development activities at Boumadine,

including an updated PEA in H2.

Key Changes

Target Estimates Q2 / 26E 2026E 2027E

$35.00↑ Revenue (mm) $454

$33.00 Previous $473

EPS $0.37 $1.40 $1.42