KPN Post Q1: Mid-term story solid, but limited catalyst for 2026. Remain N.

研报英文原文证据摘录

KPN Post Q1: Mid-term story solid, but limited catalyst for 2026. Remain N.

can sustain momentum

amid competitive and macro pressures.

• Competition stable, macro pressures not yet visible: The Dutch market remains

competitive but stable. KPN have stated that the security breach at Odido may

provide a tailwind in Q2, but they have not quantified this. On the macro impact,

KPN note that energy prices are not a major concern due to hedging. Within B2C,

KPN thinks their customer base is less impacted by energy price changes as they are

relatively affluent. Within B2B, SME clients are seen as resilient, with digitization

trends offsetting broader economic risks. LCE has remained a tough segment for

KPN and continued macro pressures could be a headwind (fewer FTEs, delaying/

pausing project spending etc.)

• EBITDAaL growth softer in Q2/3 due to one-offs; recovery in Q4: Both Q2 and

Q3 have tough comparisons which could lead to subdued EBITDAaL growth.

During 2025 there were positive one-offs due to IP sales and IPR; these benefitted

EBITDAaL in Q2 and Q3 of €23m and €15m, respectively. These will not repeat in

2026. Hence we model Q2-Q4 EBITDAaL growth of -1.1%, +1.8%, +3.3%. Cost

cutting programs should be supportive with KPN targeting €15–20m opex savings in

2026; the company expects to reduce FTEs by ~400.

• FCF stable in 2026 with capex drop-off in 2027 expected: For 2026, KPN guides

FCF >€950m driven by EBITDAaL growth and stable CapEx, partly offset by

higher cash taxes. Q1 FCF was lower y/y driven by the timing of interest costs and

WC; however, these are expected to improve and Q2 is expected to be “materially

higher than €200m” (JPMe: €217m). 2027 should bring a significant change when

CapEx steps down by €250 million to ~€1 billion (guidance) as the heavy fiber