Thoughts on SGT-003 Read on RGX-202 Top Line Data in DMD

研报英文原文证据摘录

Thoughts on SGT-003 Read on RGX-202 Top Line Data in DMD

May 14, 2026

Valuation

We use a probability-adjusted discounted cash flow analysis to value SLDB shares. We

model cash flows out to 2035 and assume a discount rate of 15% with 2% terminal value.

The estimated equity value is ~$2.0B, which includes cash. This leads us to a 12-month

price target of $16/share. Our calculation includes estimated cash and shares outstanding

at the end of 1Q27.

Risks

Solid Biosciences is an early-stage company, and investment is subject to risk. These risks

include, but are not limited to:

Clinical trial risk: Clinical development is a risky enterprise that could result in a negative

outcome. Failure to demonstrate statistical and clinical significance or a compelling drug

efficacy/safety profile could lead to rejection of regulatory approval in new or expanded

indications.

Regulatory risk: As with any company whose main business is drug development and

commercialization, Solid is subject to the stringent regulatory requirements of the FDA

and other international regulatory agencies to have its new drugs or new indications for

them approved. Promotion of its approved drug products is also stringently regulated by

the FDA and related agencies throughout the world. There have also been several changes

at the FDA, and leadership views may change.

Commercial/Competitive risk: There are multiple programs commercialized or in

development for DMD and FA. This could limit the adoption of Solid’s products if approved.

In addition, clinicians may be reluctant to change prescribing practices due to personal

clinical experience with other therapies. Also, failure to execute commercially could dilute

Solid’s market potential.