We Worry Biogen Is Taking The Wrong Fork In the Road

研报英文原文证据摘录

We Worry Biogen Is Taking The Wrong Fork In the Road

Biotechnology

Biogen Inc. (BIIB)

EQUITY RESEARCH Company Update

May 14, 2026

We Worry Biogen Is Taking The Wrong Fork In the Price: $204.53

Price Target: $206.00 Road

Rating: Overweight

BIIB announced mixed data from its Phase 2 trial on BIIB080 for Alzheimer's Key Statistics:

Symbol NSQ: BIIB this morning. The company held a call with sellside analysts to discuss its

52-Week Range 119.18 - 205.97 thoughts on the data and its decision to move BIIB080 into Phase 3, but did

Market Cap 30,196.2 not share detailed clinical information.

ADV (3 mo) 1,120,145

Shares Out (M) 147.6 Count us amongst those who are skeptical

Research Analysts: ●Biogen has spent the past 3+ years moving to lower risk R&D programs

Eric Schmidt after aducanumab nearly killed the company.

212-294-7724

Eric.Schmidt@cantor.com ●Now, is the company is moving back toward making a very large bet on

Alexa Deemer Conzola, MD a neurodegenerative disease that is inherently more risky than pretty

212-610-2242 much everything else in its pipeline.

Alexa.Deemer@cantor.com

●BIIB is making this decision despite limited understanding of Tau

REV ($M) biology and a somewhat unexplainable inverse dose response in Phase

FYE Dec 2025A 2026E 2027E 2 (both in terms of biomarkers and cognitive function).

1Q $2.4 $2.5A -

2Q $2.6 $2.3E -

3Q $2.5 $2.4E - In essence, we see the move toward a Phase 3 as a bet on the PBO arm

4Q $2.3 $2.4E - performance in Phase 2

Year $9.9 $9.7E $9.7

●It would seem that today's findings could be explainable by aberrant EPS

or poor PBO arm performance (n=120) in Phase 2.

FYE Dec 2025A 2026E 2027E

1Q $3.02 $3.57A - ●Biogen is convinced that this is not the case and that the PBO arm

2Q $5.47 $2.91E - performed as expected.