CVX: Notes from the Road

研报英文原文证据摘录

CVX: Notes from the Road

Equity Research

Earnings Revised — May 14, 2026

Integrated Oil & Gas

Chevron Corporation

Notes from the Road Overweight

Price Target: $222.00

Notable Changes

Our Call $ (Dec) Current Prior % Chg

We hosted investor meetings with CVX mgm including CFO Bonner and Dir IR Wai. The EPS 2026 13.60 13.58 0.1%

company is in a favorable operating posture with transparent capital allocation and asset EPS 2027 11.17 11.08 0.8%

momentum yielding positive FCF/leverage outcomes. FCF (MM) 2026 30,484.1 32,484.1 -6.2%

Operating Momentum: Chevron is characterized currently by strong operating Ticker CVX

momentum, with core assets Permian, Kazakhstan, Australia LNG, and Guyana running at Upside/(Downside) to Target 19.0%

full rates and/or above nameplate. Israel saw very limited interruption from conflict but is Price (05/14/2026) $186.60

at full rates currently, and Bakken/DJ/GOA sustain peak. Downstream is benefitting from

52 Week Range $133.77 - 214.71

enhanced vertical integration and equity crude into CA and Asia that might otherwise be

feedstock constrained. Market Cap (MM) $370,569

Average Daily Value (MM) $2,260

Leverage Effect: Due to timing effects and WC outflow in 1Q, 3/31 net debt/cap was Dividend Yield 3.7%

up ~230 bps and net debt/TTM CFFO increased ~30% q/q. This transitory balance sheet

impact could explain partially why CVX shares are flat since March vs. +15% XOP. With $ (Dec) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY

contribution from production momentum and WC reversal, we see net debt/CFFO ratio EPS

falling in half to <0.7x by YE26 while supporting the same share repurchase rate as 2H25 2026E 1.41 A 5.04 E 4.04 E 3.11 E 13.60 E

(~$11B annually). Prior NC NC 4.03 E NC 13.58 E

2027E 2.79 E 2.76 E 2.78 E 2.84 E 11.17 E