DOCS: Downgrade to Equal Weight: We Think Doximity Is Structurally Disadvantaged in the Must-Win AI Race; PT to $18

研报英文原文证据摘录

DOCS: Downgrade to Equal Weight: We Think Doximity Is Structurally Disadvantaged in the Must-Win AI Race; PT to $18

Doximity, Inc. Equity Research

Market. Overall market growth expected to grow at 5% or below this year. Shorter contracts (3- to 6-

month commitments), with some offset in shorter contracts carrying better pricing. Growth guided to

in-line with market (we think this decremental development adds to the debate about market share;

our recent checks suggest steady share as well, but see potential pressures emerging).

Incremental ad spend. Management called out innovation (where AI search fits) or low cost

engagement (where Doximity doesn't participate) as areas where incremental spend is happening.

With the recent launch of Commercial AI Search, Doximity is positioning itself to go after innovation

budgets that could start to trickle in, in the back half of the year.

Platform usage hasn't translated into monetization upside. Mgmt noted workflow active prescribers

reached 800k+ in Q4 (+30% y/y) with half of active prescribers using AI in the quarter (3x in 9 months).

While directionally positive, our recent KOL call suggested improved usage metrics haven't necessarily

reflected in better script lift, suggesting usage of the platform where monetization is limited or not

present. We think this helps reconcile why revenue outlook has disappointed despite positive optics

around platform engagement, though management suggested there's a lag between engagement and

revenue impact (we thought we'd see the benefits at this point).

Biz Highlights. Commercial AI Search launched late April; first deal closed with top-20 pharma. Key

incrementals related to platform engagement: 140 health systems representing ~250K prescribers