AMAG (In depth 1K) | Buy (Not Rated) | Tailwinds upstream, downstream recovery

研报英文原文证据摘录

AMAG (In depth 1K) | Buy (Not Rated) | Tailwinds upstream, downstream recovery

nd operates two production sites: primary Net financial debt (m) 333.2 307.9 247.9

FCF (m) 36.3 77.1 116.3

aluminium production through its 20% ownership of Aluminerie Alouette, a EPS adj. and ful. dil. 1.72 1.81 1.94

primary aluminium smelter located in Canada; and cast and rolled product Consensus EPS 1.67 1.70 1.91

production in Ranshofen, Austria. Net dividend 1.37 1.47 1.60

▪ The Metal division is benefiting from a more supportive aluminium price FY to 31/12 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E

environment, with higher LME prices and lower alumina costs expected to drive a P/E adj and ful. dil. 16.4 15.5 14.5

EV/EBITDA 7.7 7.5 7.2

significant margin recovery. At the same time, AMAG’s downstream activities are EV/EBIT 15.3 14.4 13.1

showing early signs of improvement, with the Rolling division supported by a FCF yield 3.7% 7.6% 11.1%

gradual recovery in automotive and heat exchanger demand. Dividend yield 4.9% 5.2% 5.7%

Deconstructing the forecasts ND(F+IFRS16)/EBITDA 1.9 1.7 1.3 Gearing 45.7% 41.5% 32.8%

▪In the Metal division, we forecast EBITDA per tonne of EUR777 for 2026E, a strong ROIC 6.0% 6.3% 6.9%

increase from 2025 (EUR534), supported by favourable LME prices and decreasing EV/IC 1.2 1.2 1.2

alumina input costs. We expect EBITDA per tonne of EUR657 and EUR519 in 2027E Sector Most Pref. Sector Least Pref.

and 2028E, respectively. ArcelorMittal SSAB

Salzgitter

▪In the Casting division, we expect EBITDA/t to remain broadly stable at EUR45-49 thyssenkrupp

over 2026-28E.

▪In the Rolling division, we forecast a 2026E increase in EBITDA/t to EUR359, driven

by a recovery in the automotive and heat exchanger sectors. We expect the recovery