Consumer Model Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Consumer Model Update

Consumer

Restaurants - Market Overweight

Consumer Model Update May 14, 2026

The Wolfe Byte

Following recent earnings reports and events across our consumer coverage, we are publishing updated models

for the companies listed below.

Additional details below...

COMPANY TICKER RATING PT (PRIOR) % UPSIDE

The Chefs' Warehouse CHEF OP $93 ($84) 15.2%

Chipotle Mexican Grill CMG OP $40 ($46) 23.6%

Domino's Pizza DPZ OP $390 ($489) 27.1%

Restaurant Brands International QSR OP $85 ($83) 9.5%

Sysco Corp. SYY PP NA

US Foods Holding USFD OP $105 23.8%

Source: Wolfe Research

OP=Outperform, PP=Peer Perform, UP=Underperform, NR=Not Rated

Priced as of 05/13/26

Investment Conclusion

Domino's (DPZ) - Outperform

Earnings Summary: Domino's 1Q comps missed expectations amid macro pressure & an intensifying promotional

environment within the pizza segment. Management expects the consumer to remain pressured through 2026, and

brought down the comp guide.

Estimate Changes: Our updated EBITDA estimates are $1,127MM (was $1,119MM), and $1,181MM (was

$1,175MM) for 2026 and 2027, respectively. Our estimates are about in-line with consensus.

Valuation and Target Price: Our price target is now $390 (was $489), implying +27% upside vs. current prices,

which represents a 15x multiple on our 2027 EBITDA estimate (was 18x). Shares currently trade around 13x NTM

EBITDA vs. five-year averages closer to 20.0x

Click here for our DPZ model.

Restaurant Brands Int'l (QSR) - Outperform

Earnings Summary: RBI's 1Q posted an inline global comp, with Burger King US delivering a healthy beat driven by

the elevated Whopper launch & Reclaim the Flame momentum. Popeyes' comps missed street expectations, while

Tims missed amid Canadian macro softness and severe weather.