TD Cowen Edge - May 15, 2026

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TD Cowen Edge - May 15, 2026

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TD SECURITIES (USA) LLC INDUSTRY UPDATE

May 15, 2026 Conflict - Integrated Oil, Refining, Midstream

1Q26 Earnings Summary

Jason Gabelman THE TD COWEN INSIGHT

646 562 1309

Companies expect oil flows to normalize 2-3 months after SoH reopens. Refining futures

jason.gabelman@tdsecurities.com

should converge higher on prompt and global gas should remain strong n/t. CVX seems best

Will Avila positioned IOC n/t while TTE top pick. MPC top refiner, though group should perform well with

646 562 1344 undemanding valuations. LNG post-earnings dip buying opportunity and see ET announcing

will.avila@tdsecurities.com

additional growth.

Anthony Petrino

646 562 1364 Macro Commentary

anthony.petrino@tdsecurities.com

Companies expect ME oil production to come back without much issue once SoH is reopened;

Jeremy Meanwell lining up ships could mean it takes 2-3 months for production to normalize. Midstream

646 562 1374 companies described US producer activity as disciplined with mixed commentary on oil

jeremy.meanwell@tdsecurities.com activity; Haynesville production should increase 2H26. US oil demand has been resilient, while

some regions in Asia are seeing 5% demand reduction. VLO noted 3 days to refill product

inventories for every day SoH is closed, while companies expect futures product prices to

converge higher on prompt. Global gas should stay supported through summer with Qatari lng

offline and Europe needing to refill inventory; we continue to expect prices normalize in 2028.

Integrated Oil Company Takeaways

US IOC valuations moved from expensive pre-earnings to more reasonable, with FY27

FCF yields pre-earnings/current/historical 6.3%/6.7%/6.9 using $72 Brent (futures at $80).