HXL: CFO intro focuses on execution, defense and positive aerospace sentiment; maint OP, $105 PT

研报英文原文证据摘录

HXL: CFO intro focuses on execution, defense and positive aerospace sentiment; maint OP, $105 PT

lizes to could see upside to the stock.

support higher production rates, we expect earnings and FCF

We expect HXL to maintain its strong competitive position into grow, along with positive re-ratings for the stock. The

the aerospace carbon fiber market, where barriers to entryimplied return to our price target justifies our Outperform

are very high. We believe that HXL could return to its previousrating.

position as being viewed as a higher-quality commercial

Upside scenario OE supplier as management ideally resets expectations and

improves execution.In our upside scenario, we apply a higher multiple to

potentially higher FCF generation in 2028. This scenario Risks to rating and price targetassumes a faster-than-anticipated supply chain recovery with

The following represent the key risks to our investment thesisa better opportunity to unwind working capital. A multiple of

and price target:27x on 2028E FCF of $386M would then point to an upside

valuation of $135. • Production schedules and successful rate breaks for key

commercial transport programsDownside scenario • The timing of the inventory work down at Boeing for the 737In our downside scenario, we model in a slower production MAX and Airbus's A350 destockingramp across the key Boeing and Airbus aircraft programs. • Airline and lessor financial health and their ability to takeApplying an 18x multiple on 2028E FCF of $257M then points delivery of new aircraftto a downside valuation of $60. • The focus on fuel efficiency for airlines and the continued

adoption of carbon fiber into aircraft and engine production

• Potential supply chain disruptions and extended lead-times

which could impact delivery schedules