First Read: Charoen Pokphand Foods "Management expects swine prices to..."

研报英文原文证据摘录

First Read: Charoen Pokphand Foods "Management expects swine prices to..."

mport volumes starting next year.

12/27E 2.23 2.69

12/28E 3.22 3.13

Expecting China swine price to improve in H226

International operations exhibit divergent trends across markets, with China continuing Alex Manoonpol

Analystto face challenges stemming from excess supply, which weighed on Q1 profitability. The

alex.manoonpol@ubs.com

Chinese government has implemented another phase of swine herd reduction after

+662-613 5770

earlier measures were insufficient to stabilize the market, with expectations that this will

support price improvements by late 2026. Conversely, Vietnam business is recovering Permada Darmono

Analystrapidly as stricter regulations phase out non-compliant small farms, leading to tighter

permada.darmono@ubs.com

supply. Additionally, the management confirmed that the CP Vietnam IPO remains on +65-6495 3137

track, with the listing projected to take place in either late 2026 or early 2027.

Mark Sriskulpinyo

Associate Analyst

Valuation: DCF-based price target of Bt21.00; Neutral

mark.sriskulpinyo@ubs.com

CPF is trading at 8x 2026E PE in line with the Thai consumer sector average. We expect +662-613 5742

Thai swine prices to begin improving in H226, especially in Q426, supported by seasonal

demand trends alongside a continued reduction in supply. Nonetheless, the overall

impact on margins will hinge on the rate of raw material cost increases, with the recent

developments surrounding US corn imports expected to alleviate margin pressures in

2027. In the near term, supply growth linked to concerns over emerging diseases is likely

to persist, exerting downward pressure on prices, though the comparison base in Q426

is expected to be more favorable.