First Read: GT Capital "Q126 points to weakening auto outlook" (Buy) Abaquita

研报英文原文证据摘录

First Read: GT Capital "Q126 points to weakening auto outlook" (Buy) Abaquita

BS Cons.

implementing price increases in Q226. Lower volumes and margins resulted in the 12/25E 152.38 154.72

double-digit decline in TMP's earnings. In property, Federal Land remains under pressure 12/26E 166.79 154.29

from the industry-wide downturn. Reservation sales fell 32% YoY to P3.8bn, albeit still 12/27E 180.80 165.22

running above P1bn monthly, with over half driven by ready-for-occupancy (RFO) sales.

No new launches were reported. Earnings were supported by a P3.8bn asset sale gain, Mica Abaquita

Analyst

offsetting its underlying operating loss.

mica.abaquita@ubs.com

+632-8784 8827

How has the company's outlook/guidance changed?

TMP is navigating through a challenging environment by expanding its representation in

EVs while retaining its leadership in ICEs. Management is targeting xEV share of sales at

12–15%, supported by a broader lineup and a focus on more affordable hybrid

offerings. Upcoming launches, including a battery electric Hilux and hybrid Land Cruiser,

underscore efforts to scale electrification, although supply constraints remain a key risk

amid strong global demand and ongoing geopolitical disruptions. At the same time,

TMP is defending its market leadership by maximizing its ICE portfolio—still the

dominant segment of the market—and leveraging high-volume models and the

Tamaraw, which recently secured a PUV certification, effectively expanding its

addressable market.

Valuation: We have a Buy rating on GTCAP

We will be revisiting our estimates post-Q1 results.

Highlights (Pm) 12/22 12/23 12/24 12/25E 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E 12/29E

Revenues 220,763 278,017 291,027 315,831 331,070 360,276 392,609 427,247

EBIT (UBS) 14,008 27,287 23,997 28,708 31,964 34,733 37,738 40,934