Freeport-McMoRan "Expert Call Feedback & Grasberg Restart Risks" (Buy) Major

研报英文原文证据摘录

Freeport-McMoRan "Expert Call Feedback & Grasberg Restart Risks" (Buy) Major

Global Research

15 May 2026ab

Freeport-McMoRan Equities

United StatesExpert Call Feedback & Grasberg Restart Risks

Non-Ferrous Metals

12-month rating Buy

Guidance looks achievable but water management risks remain

We hosted a leading global hydrologist and block caving expert (45+ year's experience) 12m price target US$74.00

to assess the Grasberg Block Cave (GBC) ramp-up and associated risks. The key

takeaway is that water management - specifically the water table level “head” - remains

Price (14 May 2026) US$66.14

the critical and underappreciated risk to safety and long-term performance. While FCX

has implemented measures to control water flow following the Sep-2025 mud rush RIC: FCX.N BBG: FCX US

event, the expert believes current solutions are a reaction to the incident and potential

Trading data and key metrics

changes to hydrology, rather than a structural solution and may not fully address the

52-wk range US$70.36-35.34

root cause. The expert believes lowering the water table below the extraction level

would effectively eliminate mud rush risk; technical solutions to achieve this are Market cap. US$95.5b

available, capital costs limited and would not impact the current ramp-up schedule; but Shares o/s 1,444m (COM)

current plans do not reduce risk levels far enough. The expert's view on hydrology does Free float 88%

not suggest FCX guidance and ramp up is not achievable, but execution risk is elevated Avg. daily volume ('000) 3,602

given current solutions are not 'thinking large enough'. Avg. daily value (m) US$222.2

Common s/h equity (12/26E) US$20.1b

Focus should be on root cause analysis not what was effected P/BV (12/26E) 4.7x