DT F4Q26 Earnings - Haters Gonna Hate, Dynatrace Gonna Accelerate

研报英文原文证据摘录

DT F4Q26 Earnings - Haters Gonna Hate, Dynatrace Gonna Accelerate

May 13, 2026

Investment Conclusion

DT traded roughly down ~14% the day of the company's F4Q26 earnings print. Heading into the print, the stock

was down ~10% YTD versus the IGV -15% and our infrastructure comp group +17%. Over the last three months DT

shares are +7% compared to the IGV +11% and our infrastructure comp group +24%.

As a result of the print and the initial guidance, we are raising our CC ARR estimates and now call for growth of

~17% in FY27 (vs. ~15% prior) and 14% in FY28. On subscription revenue, our FY27 and FY28 increased by 90bps

and 120bps, respectively, to now call for growth of 15.4% and 13.7% (14.9% and 13.4% previously). On bottom

line metrics, our out year estimates call for FY27 and FY28 operating margins of ~30% and ~31% and FCF margins

of ~27% and ~28%.

DT is trading at ~3.6x CY27 EV/Sales and 14x FCF, which are below the stock's one and three-year average multiples

on both valuation metrics, where on revenue, DT's one and three-year average multiples are ~5.6x and ~7.2x, and

on FCF are 21x and 29x. Relative to our Emerging Leaders Comp Group (15%+ CY25 Revenue Growth, <$500M

Incremental Revenue) which trade at ~4x CY27 Revenue and ~29x FCF, and DT shares trade at relative discounts of

10% on revenue and 53% on FCF. Compared to Rule of 40+ software names which trade at 5.6x revenue and 17x

FCF, DT trades at discounts of 35% and 19%, respectively. While we do acknowledge investor concerns around the

potential aggressiveness of the FY27 guidance that implies acceleration in CC NNARR growth as a starting point, we

exit the F4Q print maintaining our confidence in the DT story and still see potential for durable, mid-teens growth

over the coming years. DT remains Outperform rated.