Automotive Industry: Weekly automotive pit stop: More production cuts as Hormuz closure ongoing

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Automotive Industry: Weekly automotive pit stop: More production cuts as Hormuz closure ongoing

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Automotive Industry

Weekly automotive pit stop: More

production cuts as Hormuz closure ongoing

Industry Overview

S&P cuts global production outlook again in May 15 May 2026

According to the May S&P production revision released today, global production was Equity

reduced by another 500K units for 2026 to 90.9mm units, with total units 1.7mm lower Global

since January, led by Greater China (-568k) and Middle East and Africa (-418k), while Autos/Car Manufacturers

North America is still only slightly lower at -15k units. S&P’s 2026 global light vehicle Alexander Perry

sales forecast was also lowered to 90.5m versus 91.8m in January. We think the broader Research Analyst

downward revisions reflect the continued Strait of Hormuz disruption with S&P shifting BofAS+1 646 855 1365

to an oil price scenario of increased and more sustained impact through 2027. On aperry3@bofa.com

USMCA, S&P thinks there is a 40% chance that the nations agree to a modificed ESMCA

before 2026 mid-terms, 30% chance of extending the USMCA review priod to mid-2027.

S&P cites the highest probability trade structure outcome would include the addition of:

(1) implementation of US tariffs on USMCA compliant vehicles built in Mexico and Stock symbol key

Canata at ~10%, (2) addition of a model US Value Add for Canada and Mexico built Adient Plc ADNT

Aptiv PLC APTV

vehicles bound for the U.S., and (3) key model to control/limit China’s share increase. Asbury Auto ABG

AutoNation, Inc. AN

BorgWarner BWAHigher gas prices still manageable as a % of DPI

CarMax KMX

We continue to monitor U.S. gas prices at $4.63, up +1% vs. last week and +51% since Dauch Corporation DCH

the start of the Iran conflict.