US Economic Weekly: Stagflation or reflation?

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US Economic Weekly: Stagflation or reflation?

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US Economic Weekly

Stagflation or reflation?

The jury is still out 15 May 2026

The economy is being buffeted by a plethora of supply and demand shocks. The tails of Economics

the economic and Fed policy distribution are fat. Inflation is clearly a problem. But are United States

we experiencing stagflation or reflation? Resilient spending and booming earnings point US Economics

to reflation. But with the fiscal tailwind fading, the true test of consumer and labor BofAS

resilience might still be ahead of us. The labor market would have to start tightening for Aditya Bhave

reflation and rate hikes to become our base case. US Economist BofAS

+1 646 855 9929

The week ahead: focus on the FOMC minutes aditya.bhave@bofa.com

Next week, the FOMC minutes from the April meeting (Wed) will be the focus. Stephen Juneau US Economist

Additionally, we’ll learn more about the housing market from pending home sales (Tue), BofAS

and housing starts and permits (Thu). We’ll also get an early read on business sentiment +1stephen.juneau@bofa.com202 442 7429

for May on Thursday from the Philly Fed Index and S&P Global US PMIs along with the Shruti Mishra

final UMich consumer sentiment reading for May on Friday. In terms of Fedspeak, Waller US Economist

speaks on Tue and Fri, Paulson on Tue and Barr on Wed. BofAS+1 646 855 1040

smishra44@bofa.com

Mintues preview: A hawkish message Matthew Yep

We expect the FOMC minutes to reinforce the Fed’s recent hawkish tone. A growing USBofASEconomist

number of participants are uneasy with strong inflation data and the statement’s +1 646 556 2970 matthew.yep@bofa.com

perceived easing bias. While downside labor risks will be noted, the focus should be on

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