Solid Qtr, Although not Perfect, and FY Outlook Intact

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Solid Qtr, Although not Perfect, and FY Outlook Intact

USA | Restaurants

Black Rock Coffee Bar EquityMayResearch12, 2026

TARGET CHANGESolid Qtr, Although not Perfect, and FY Outlook

RATING BUYIntact

PRICE $10.97^

1Q SSS 5.2% was inline despite new sales xfer impact in the Phoenix mkt; still,

F26 SSS guide reiterated for +MSD%, which we view as achievable & supported PRICE TARGET | % TO PT $22.00 ($27.00) | +101%

by many drivers. Higher RLM led to EBITDA beat, we maintain our ests as FY 52W HIGH-LOW $30.40 - $10.62

guide intact but think our ests could prove overly conservative. +1 more unit FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD) 33.0% | 3.60

opened vs expected, '26 target on track and we think LT growth oppty not MARKET CAP $559.5M

reflected in current valuation/fears around competition are overblown; Buy, PT TICKER BRCB ^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise

$22. noted.

In-line SSS & outlook intact, supported by many drivers incl. protein options now fully rolled out. FY (Dec) CHANGE TO JEFe JEF vs CONS

1Q SSS 5.2% was inline, with traffic -0.6% and mix up 2.8% from less discounting y/y (and growing 2026 2027 2026 2027

food mix), as well as sales transfer impact of -160bps, which was not material prior to this qtr, driven REV NM NA NM +1%

by new stores from late ’25 intentionally adding density to the Phoenix market. While this drag likely

EPS NA NA NA NA

to continue till it’s lapped next year, FY26 SSS guide nonetheless reiterated for +MSD% and Revs

still expected at $255-257m. BRCB has not seen any consumer slowdown from higher gas prices/

other macro factors & we’d also flag that mgmt cited no impact in CO from the MCD beverage test

(SSS there above system avg), and we continue to think it won’t have any/much impact on BRCB

or similar best-in-class peers.