Saudi Tadawul Group (TADAWULG AB) Buy: Margin pain is temporary, the platform story isn’t

研报英文原文证据摘录

Saudi Tadawul Group (TADAWULG AB) Buy: Margin pain is temporary, the platform story isn’t

14 May 2026

Saudi Tadawul Group Equities Diversified Financial Srvcs

(TADAWULG AB)

Buy: Margin pain is temporary, the p f s s ’ Saudi Arabia

◆ Transition from a purely ADTV-dependent exchange has MAINTAIN BUY

been challenged by cost increases and EBITDA margin drop

TARGET PRICE (SAR) PREVIOUS TARGET (SAR)

◆ We don’t see a structural top-line impairment; revenue

178.00 194.00 margins remain resilient; normalisation in costs is key

◆ Cut 2026e-27e EPS; lower TP to SAR178 (from SAR194); SHARE PRICE (SAR) UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE

retain Buy; stock trades at 32x 2027e PE 136.00 +30.9%

(as of 12 May 2026)

Structural diversification requires patience. Tadawul is transitioning from a purely MARKET DATA

Market cap (SARm) 16,320 Free float 40%

ADTV-dependent exchange into a multi-revenue-stream capital market platform. Market cap (USDm) 4,349 BBG TADAWULG AB

Non-ADTV revenues compounded at a c12% CAGR 2022-26 compared to c4% for 3m ADTV (USDm) 13 RIC 1111.SE

trading-linked revenue during the same period. Data & Technology and post-trade FINANCIALS AND RATIOS (SAR)

have been key revenue drivers, leading to a revenue margin improvement to 10.9bps Year to 12/2025a 12/2026e 12/2027e 12/2028e

HSBC EPS 3.30 2.99 4.21 5.81

in Q1 26 from 8.5bps in Q1 23. Management launched a data monetisation initiative HSBC EPS (prev) 3.30 3.43 5.09 6.74

in Q4 25, which should add to revenue diversification. Change (%) 0.0 -12.8 -17.3 -13.8

Consensus EPS 3.20 3.51 4.42 5.07

Q1 26 was unambiguously weak, but management has flagged the floor. PE (x) 42.6 45.4 32.3 23.4

Dividend yield (%) 1.6 1.5 2.2 3.0

Revenue of SAR295m missed our estimates by 5%, falling 10% y/y, driven by lower EV/EBITDA (x) 32.2 38.7 27.3 18.9