POU: Q1/26 - Results Backstopped by Strength at Willesden

研报英文原文证据摘录

POU: Q1/26 - Results Backstopped by Strength at Willesden

RBC Dominion Securities Inc.

Michael Harvey, P.Eng. (Analyst)

(403) 299-6998, michael.harvey@rbccm.com

Braeden Hay, CFA (Senior Associate)

(403) 476-7422, braeden.hay@rbccm.com

May 12, 2026 Sector Perform

TSX: POU; CAD 29.24 Paramount Resources Ltd. Price Target CAD 35.00 ↑ 32.00RESEARCH Q1/26 - Results Backstopped by Strength at Scenario Analysis*

Willesden Downside Current Price Upside

Our view: Paramount delivered above-street quarterly results, Scenario Price Target Scenario

underpinned by well results and run-time within the WS Duvernay core 20.00 29.24 35.00 40.00

which were both better than our expectations. Our estimates increase on 30% 22% 39%

better capital efficiencies and a higher liquids cut, which could set the *Implied Total Returns

stage for a stronger 2027 (though we have left our '27 estimates largely Key Statistics

Shares O/S (MM): 149.8 Market Cap (MM): 4,380EQUITY unchanged for now). Dividend: 0.60 Yield: 2.1%

Avg. Daily Volume: 437,471

Key points:

• Quarterly numbers. POU announced Q1/26 volumes of 48,255 boe/d RBC Estimates

(50% liquids) which compared to RBC/Street estimates of 45,175/45,039 FY Dec 2024A 2025A 2026E 2027E

CFPS Diluted 6.23 3.18 4.94 6.14 boe/d. CFPS came in at $0.97, ahead of RBC/Street estimates of $0.88/ Prev. 4.69 6.15

$0.87 with the variance largely due to higher volumes and liquids cut vs P/CFPS 4.7x 9.2x 5.9x 4.8x

our expectation. Capital spent during the quarter totalled $257mm which Oil (mbbl/d) 47.4 20.3 25.5 32.3

was lower than RBC/Street estimates. During the quarter POU disposed Prev. 32.0

of non-core heavy oil lands for cash proceeds of $23mm, plus Fox Drilling Gas (mmcf/d) 306.8 131.9 153.0 195.9

(pre-announced). Prev. 150.5 194.0