MAIR: Solid 15% 1Q26 Operating Beat vs Our Est in Public Company Debut; 2026 Guide Set Above

研报英文原文证据摘录

MAIR: Solid 15% 1Q26 Operating Beat vs Our Est in Public Company Debut; 2026 Guide Set Above

EQUITY RESEARCH QUICK TAKE

RBC Capital Markets, LLC

Deane Dray, CFA (Co-Head of Global Industrials

Research)

Thomas Wisnewski, CFA (Senior Associate)

Jeffrey Reive, CFA (Analyst)

Kenny Sim, CFA (AVP)

May 12, 2026

Madison Air Solutions Corporation

Solid 15% 1Q26 Operating Beat vs Our Est in Public Company Debut; 2026 Guide Set

Above

NYSE: MAIR | USD 42.08 | Outperform | Price Target USD 48.00

Sentiment: Positive

Our view:Outperform-rated Madison Air reported a solid 1Q26 with a 15% adjusted EBITDA operating beat and topline upside

vs. our estimates. Revenues exceeded our/consensus estimates, with organic sales growing 11.7% in 1Q26 versus our estimate of

4.2% and consensus of 4.4%. Organic sales growth at Commercial of 17.2% Y/Y was well above our 6.5% estimate and the -1.9%

Residential organic decline was roughly in-line with our estimates. Madison Air did not report a share count for EPS as this is

most likely still being finalized given its IPO on April-15. However, they did note that the underwriters fully exercised their option.

Therefore, we are assuming pro forma ~509.7 million shares outstanding for the company for our EPS calculations. Given this,

we estimate the implied pro forma adjusted EPS would be $0.18, 5c/35% above our $0.13 estimate and 4c/32% above consensus

at $0.14. Madison Air’s initial 2026 sales guidance expects 2026 net sales of $3,750-$3,850 million, implying growth of 13.8% at

the midpoint vs. our estimate/consensus at 10.7%. The company is guiding for adjusted EBITDA of $1,020-$1,065 million that is

above our $1,013 million estimate and consensus at $1,012 million and implies adjusted EBITDA margin of 27.4% in-line with our

estimate/consensus at 27.4%.