A.P. MOLLER MAERSK (-) : Red Sea return in 2026?

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A.P. MOLLER MAERSK (-) : Red Sea return in 2026?

EQUITIES

TRANSPORT & INFRA.

UNDERPERFORM TARGET PRICE EPS 26e EPS 27eA.P. MOLLER MAERSK PRICE* DKK14,695  TARGET PRICE DKK11,000 (DOWNSIDE 25%)  -2%  -20%  NM

Red Sea return in 2026?

No change to FY guidance suggests downside risks for the remainder of the year…14 MAY 2026

Securities Research Report Maersk’s Q1 results delivered a small beat, but there was distinct disappointment for some from the

Production time: 16:14* (London time) lack of any upward shift in its FY guidance range. The guidance retention implied consensus

Research Analysts & Publishing Entities downgrades for the remainder of the year. Q1 cash burn was also below expectations, albeit

James Hollins unchanged FY guidance suggests an improving run-rate for Q2-Q4.

BNP Paribas London Branch

(+44) 203 430 8438

james.hollins@uk.bnpparibas.com …with a return to the Red Sea an increasing possibility

Given the multitude of factors feeding into the chronic level of uncertainty for the Ocean outlook, it is

Hugo Watkins perhaps unsurprising that FY guidance wasn’t adjusted despite EBITDA equivalent to c.40% of the

(+44) 203 430 8440 low-end of the range being delivered in Q1. Looking ahead, one important consideration is whether

hugo.watkins@uk.bnpparibas.com a return to the Red Sea is on the cards for the industry. Based on management comments on its

earnings call, a gradual return by Maersk (on a vessel-by-vessel basis) seems an increasing

possibility. Timelines remain vague but we see potential for a return to begin in the coming weeks if

Maersk is to undertake such sailings before the traditional peak season in July/August.

Structural supply-demand issues remain

Irrespective of developments in the Red Sea, we remain unchanged in our view that supply-demand