3I (+) : Some thoughts following the print, selloff and investor discussions

研报英文原文证据摘录

3I (+) : Some thoughts following the print, selloff and investor discussions

EQUITIES

DIVERSIFIED FINANCIALS

3I OUTPERFORMPRICE* GBP24.2  TARGET PRICE GBP41 (UPSIDE 69%)

FLASH NOTE

Some thoughts following the print, selloff and investor discussions

14 MAY 2026 Securities Research Report Production time: 15:11* (London time)

Research Analyst & Publishing Entities

Gregory Simpson BNP Paribas London Branch (+44) 203 430 8548 gregory.simpson@uk.bnpparibas.com

A volatile day for 3i with the shares (already weak into the FY26 results print) trading down as much as 25% intraday.

We highlight a few further thoughts since our first take, the analyst conference call and investor discussions.

What is going on with LfLs? we think Action’s implied LfLs were basically flat so far in calendar Q2 (5-week period).

We also think looking at LfLs on a multi-year basis is sensible and we back out a ~4% 2Y annualised rate here.

Source: BNP Paribas estimates

Investors have been asking about this slowdown and the extent it is cyclical (e.g. consumer under pressure from lower

confidence, energy price inflation), weather related or more structural (e.g. competition). We do think there is little to

suggest the latter at this stage, with our view being more that Action has run through a period of very elevated LfLs and

certain swing factors will have been unhelpful this year: Eurozone consumer confidence hit -21 in Apr, the lowest print

since Dec-22. We do think comments around weather are harder to square – see our tracker of German weather below:

Avg temp (c) Jan Feb Mar Apr May* Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Rain (mm) Jan Feb Mar Apr May* Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2021 1.1 2.3 5.2 6.5 9.9 19.3 18.7 16.8 15.6 10.1 5.3 3.1 2021 99 62 59 47 38 104 113 109 50 66 57 85