SAUDI ARAMCO (=) : Updating model to account for new oil deck and 1Q26 earnings

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SAUDI ARAMCO (=) : Updating model to account for new oil deck and 1Q26 earnings

EQUITIES

OIL & GAS

SAUDI ARAMCO NEUTRALPRICE* SAR27.9  TARGET PRICE SAR28 (UPSIDE 0%) TARGET 6%PRICE EPS42%26e EPS 2%27e

Updating model to account for new oil deck and 1Q26 earnings

Significant earnings upgrade led by our much higher oil price forecast (up USD40/bbl in 2026)14 MAY 2026

Securities Research Report As outlined in BIG OIL: Fundamentally Changed we have significantly increased our oil price outlook.

Production time: 05:28* (London time) We now expect Brent to average USD 91/bbl in 2026 (vs our earlier estimate of USD 58/bbl) due to

Research Analysts & Publishing Entities the ongoing Middle East conflict and subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Given Saudi

Lucas Herrmann Aramco’s ability to broadly sustain production in this higher oil price environment (we expect c.

BNP Paribas London Branch 9.3mb/d crude this year – slightly lower YoY due to shut of facilities during conflict), this drives our(+44) 203 430 8442

lucas.herrmann@uk.bnpparibas.com earnings upgrade, with our 2026E adjusted net income at c. USD132bn vs USD105bn in FY2025.

This is also supported by Aramco’s downstream business, which is delivering record refiningEva Xenios

BNP Paribas London Branch availability and throughput, capturing the high margins seen so far this year.

(+44) 203 430 8602

eva.x.xenios@uk.bnpparibas.com Oil price normalization by 2027, with Aramco positioned for recovery

The small EPS upgrade in 2027 is also driven by the commodity outlook, with our expectation for a

higher mid-cycle oil price of c. USD 80/bbl, as the need for energy security and the rebuild of lost

inventories becomes a priority post-conflict. In Aramco’s results conference call earlier this week, the