Upbeat on optimization for West Japan three-firm tie-up

研报英文原文证据摘录

Upbeat on optimization for West Japan three-firm tie-up

12 May 2026

Mizuho Securities Equity Research Cross-sector Research / Chemicals and Textiles

Industry Overview

MC, MCGC, AK equity interests (45:45:10) reasonable: upbeat on progress

Senior Analyst: Summary: Implications of agreement on basic chemical offtake

Mikiya Yamada volumes

+81 3 6202 8390 On 12 May, Asahi Kasei (3407), Mitsui Chemicals (4183), and Mitsubishi

mikiya.yamada@mizuho-sc.com Chemical Group (MCGC; 4188) announced that they would move forward

with merger discussions on the assumption that each would invest in a new

joint venture with a ratio of 45:45:10 (see our 27 January report titled Upbeat

on upstream petrochemical reorganization progress). The ratio is based on

the offtake volumes for basic chemicals, and is part of a broader move to

optimize production operations for basic petrochemicals in western Japan. The

equity interest ratios appear reasonable, and we believe the joint venture will

be an equity method associate of Mitsui Chemicals and MCGC but excluded

from scope for consolidation by Asahi Kasei. The deal demonstrates progress

toward the formation of an agreement between the three companies on the

offtake volumes for basic chemicals in around FY3/31. We believe it also points

to a higher likelihood that Mitsui Chemicals and MCGC will announce further

restructuring of downstream derivatives operations.

Asahi Kasei released earnings on the same day, also announcing a partial

restructure of the derivative product businesses (styrene monomer/SM,

acrylonitrile/AN, polyethylene/PE) in the Mizushima facility in around FY3/31,

and is drawing up plans to reduce basic chemical usage volumes. In our view,

the decision is consistent with the three companies’ measures to curb earnings