Upgrading to Outperform; Torque to the Upside Into 2027

研报英文原文证据摘录

Upgrading to Outperform; Torque to the Upside Into 2027

Trican Well Service - Block Summary Model

Income Statement 2025A 2026E 2027E

Revenue $1,096 $1,231 $1,321

Operating Expenses 795 892 938 Valuation

Gross Margin 301 339 383 Our $9.00 target price reflects ~5.5x 2027E EV/EBITDA.

EBITDA $251 $282 $324 Upside Scenario $11.00

EBT 148 162 212 If commodity prices remain elevated, TCW could experience

Net Income 112 125 163 incremental pressure pumping demand (and pricing power).

Such a development would likely have a dramatic effect on

Adjusted Net Income 112 125 163 valuation (pressure pumping stocks are extremely volatile)

EPS (diluted) 0.57 0.59 0.77 and could see shares trade up to the $11 level.

Adjusted EPS (diluted) $0.57 $0.59 $0.77 Downside Scenario $5.00

Cash Flow Statement 2025A 2026E 2027E Should oil/gas prices fall to low levels for an extended

Cash Flow from Ops (before ∆ WC) 194 239 286 period, demand for pressure pumping equipment would

likely decline. We would not be surprised if shares traded

Change in Working Capital (26) 38 (50) down to ~$5.

Cash Flow From Operations 168 277 236 in CAD

Cash Flow From Investments (126) (123) (90)

-30% +26% +53%

Cash Provided From Financing (55) (154) (146)

Change in Cash (14) 0 0 Downside Current Target Upside

Scenario Price Price Scenario

Cash at Beginning of Period 26 12 12 5.00 7.17 9.00 11.00

Cash at End of Period 12 12 12

Key Catalysts Balance Sheet 2025A 2026E 2027E

Like its pressure pumping peers, positive catalysts for TCW

Total Current Assets 321 273 323 include rising completion intensities as well as an uptick in

Total Assets 1,014 977 1,002 pricing.

Total Current Liabilities 129 118 118 Company Description

Total Liabilities 318 212 122 Trican provides pressure-pumping services to oil and gas

producers.