Takeaways From 2026 Investor Day

研报英文原文证据摘录

Takeaways From 2026 Investor Day

2027, which should support higher D4 RIN values and an ongoing strong RD Adj. EPS $1.50 $0.82 $4.08 $4.17

margin environment. Higher RD margins likely needed in 2027 to unwind RIN deficit. CFPS $3.10 $4.13 $(0.08) $0.08

Market environment beyond 2027 lacks RVO visibility, but would take big reversal EBIT Margin 7.6% 6.0% 15.9% 15.2%

to revert to down-cycle environment. Even in an extended mid-cycle environment, Consensus Estimates

DAR would be able to generate ~$5B in free cash flow through 2030 -- half of its current

2024A 2025A 2026E 2027E

market cap. Moreover, DAR should build on its mid-cycle EBITDA scenario of $1.6B as 1)

it sees the potential for $150-300mm of internal improvements that are not reflected in EPS $4.35 $4.83

its scenarios and 2) maintains attractive upside opportunity with Nextida (could double Valuation

Food EBITDA over time, but still needs to make a lot of progress). 2024A 2025A 2026E 2027E

Cash returns to shareholders and organic growth investments appear to be post P/E 37.0x NM 15.7x 15.3x

de-leverage capital allocation priorities. Initial pullback in shares likely reflected EV/EBITDA 12.8x 13.4x 7.8x 7.8x

some investors' expectation for concrete buyback/dividend commitment at the event.

P/CFPS 20.6x 15.4x NM NM

However, it likely was too early in de-leveraging timeline for that, but remains central

QTR. EBITDA Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4to longer-term capital allocation strategy. DAR expects to generate enough cash over

the next 2-3 years to pursue both organic growth and cash return to shareholders. 2024A $280 $274 $237 $289

Notably, DAR doesn’t expect to contribute more growth capex to DGD in the near-term 2025A $196 $250 $245 $336

(more market commitments needed for SAF expansion).