CMI: Analyst Day Preview: Structural Margin Inflection and Data Center Tailwinds

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CMI: Analyst Day Preview: Structural Margin Inflection and Data Center Tailwinds

Equity Research

Company Update — May 12, 2026

Machinery, Industrials & Environmental Services

Cummins Inc.

Analyst Day Preview: Structural Margin Inflection and Data Overweight

Center Tailwinds Price Target: $794.00

Our Call Ticker CMI

Upside/(Downside) to Target 12.7%

We remain buyers of CMI (Tactical List) as we expect the analyst day to reveal (i) higher

Power Systems capacity, (ii) structurally higher Engine margins, and (iii) expanded prime Price (05/12/2026) $704.56

power product offering. We see potential for $50 implied EPS in 2030E. 52 Week Range $307.91 - 718.08

Market Cap (MM) $97,793

Enterprise Value (MM) $102,297

2030 Targets the key focus amid higher Power Systems capacity and Engine margin Average Daily Value (MM) $610

upside. We see potential for CMI's 2030 targets at the analyst day to point to EPS power Dividend Yield 1.0%

of $45-$55, driven by (i) Power Systems capacity amid rising lead times (now into 2029),

(ii) higher Engine margins on EPA 27 products, (iii) narrowed losses in Accelera, and (iv) $ (Dec) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY

upside from natural gas engine product potential for data center. We expect a 5-7% sales

EPS

CAGR and an 8-10% EBITDA CAGR (13% CAGR achievable – Exh 1).

2026E 6.15 A 7.39 E 8.12 E 8.54 E 30.18 E

2027E 7.69 E 8.47 E 9.07 E 9.49 E 36.87 E

Potential for $5 bn of Power Systems sales growth by 2030. CMI has increased its large

engine capacity by 2x, and we expect another 50%+ increase off current levels. Demand Source:NA = NotCompanyAvailable,Data,NC =WellsNo Change,Fargo SecuritiesNE = Noestimates,Estimate and Factset.

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