CGBD: Recap: SOFR Surfer

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CGBD: Recap: SOFR Surfer

BDC Equity Research

Wells Fargo Express Takeaways

Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. (CGBD) | Rating: Overweight | Price Target: $12.00

Analyst: Finian P. O'Shea

Financials Investment Thesis

We rate CGBD shares Overweight due to its stable credit,FY (Dec) 2026E 2027E 2028E

$ conservative marks and relative valuation against peers. We see

ESTIMATES additional upside potential through a possible realignment of the

EPS company's 1.50% base management fee, and the advisers' planned

Q1 0.36 A 0.34 E 0.35 E investments in its origination franchise.

Q2 0.33 E 0.34 E 0.35 E

Q3 0.35 E 0.34 E 0.36 E

Q4 0.35 E 0.35 E 0.36 E Risk vs. Reward – Upside/Downside Price Target Scenarios

AN 1.39 E 1.38 E 1.42 E

Rev. (MM) 240.0 E 227.1 E 220.3 E

Upside Scenario $15.00

WELLS FARGO vs. CONSENSUS

Consensus Estimate 1.45 E 1.45 E 1.47 E

Difference from Consensus (4.5)% (3.2)% Base Case $12.00

* $11.38

VALUATION Downside Scenario $10.00

P/E 8.2x 8.2x 8.0x

EV/Revenue 8.7x 9.2x 9.5x

EPS: Beginning in 1Q25, figures are adjusted to reflect merger accounting adjustments to match $8 $10 $12 $14 $18

CGBD's financial reporting.

Consensus Estimate: EPS; Source: FactSet

Source: Company Data, Wells Fargo Securities estimates, and Factset.

NA = Not Available, NE = No Estimate *As of 05/11/26

Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC estimates and Factset.

Base Case | $12.00 Upside Scenario | $15.00 Downside Scenario | $10.00

CGBD has delivered good credit An upside scenario in the near term likely A downside scenario in the near term likely

performance, but is burdened by a costlier involves improved credit performance involves weakening credit performance

expense base, primarily through the mgmt and contracting credit spreads. In such an and widening credit spreads. In such an