European Autos & Auto Parts: S&P GLVP forecasts – May 2026 update

研报英文原文证据摘录

European Autos & Auto Parts: S&P GLVP forecasts – May 2026 update

Equity Research

15 May 2026

European Autos & Auto Parts

S&P GLVP forecasts – May 2026

update

Key takes: 1) Another sharp round of ME-related 2026-28 GLVP European Autos & Auto Parts

forecast cuts, 2) NA under increasing pressures too (notably in NEGATIVE

2027/28) and 3) updated 2026-28 GLVP forecasts now more NEUTRALU.S. Autos & Mobility

consistent with current BARC estimates. European Autos & Auto Parts

Erwann Dagorne

S&P Global published its May-26 GLVP update earlier today, meaningfully cutting (again) +33 (0)1 4458 3664

erwann.dagorne@barclays.comits 2026-28 forecasts to reflect its latest higher for longer oil price scenario (now through

BBI, Paris

2027) and knock-on impacts to vehicle demand / production in other global markets. The

new forecast round also incorporates further weakening domestic demand in China (not Henning Cosman

surprising to us) as well as increasing concerns about potential feedstock / parts shortages +44 (0)20 3134 3106

henning.cosman@barclays.com(notably in Asia). It is also worth noting here that S&P has seen early evidence of some

Barclays, UK

production being pulled forward in March (+275k units vs. April update, of which ~70% in

Asia) and again in April (+52k units). Wei Jia

+44 (0)20 3555 6740

As a result, S&P now expects 2026 GLVP to decline by -2.4% yoy to 90.9m units (-500k units wei.jia@barclays.com

vs. April update), with the largest downgrades in China (-197k), Japan/Korea (-109k) and Barclays, UK

Europe ex-Russia (-74k). S&P also cut its 2027/28 GLVP forecast by -1.2m / -795k units (vs.

U.S. Autos & Mobility

last month), now expecting 91.6m units / +0.8% yoy and 93.1m / +1.7%, respectively, with Dan Levy