U.S. Aftermarket Auto Parts: Some Gas Left in the Tank; Catalysts Ahead

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U.S. Aftermarket Auto Parts: Some Gas Left in the Tank; Catalysts Ahead

Equity Research

15 May 2026

U.S. Aftermarket Auto Parts

Some Gas Left in the Tank;

Catalysts Ahead

Aftermarket auto parts stocks have not performed as U.S. Broadlines, Hardlines & Food Retail

defensively on concerns over higher gas prices and eventual NEUTRAL

product disinflation. While those are valid, there are positive U.S. Broadlines, Hardlines & Food

Retail

catalysts ahead (weather, more inflation) and modest upside Seth Sigman

to est. (although not to the extent of ORLY as we discuss). +1 212 526 7417

seth.sigman@barclays.com

BCI, US

Trends have been more volatile in recent weeks, perhaps contributing to the recent stock

Oliver Hu

performance; the broader concern in the market has been the impact from higher gas prices and +1 212 526 6180

the move further away from tax refunds, which is relevant here too. We actually think the bigger oliver.hu@barclays.com

driver has just been weather, which has been cooler y/y broadly across the country (Figure 4) BCI, US

and seems under-appreciated. We also believe regional exposure may play a big role in the Serena E Shalam

comps gap between AZO, AAP, and ORLY this quarter, as we discuss below; i.e., while we see +1 212 526 3492

modest upside to initial expectations for AZO/AAP, it should be less than ORLY. serena.shalam@barclays.com

Looking ahead, warmer weather should serve as a positive catalyst in the coming weeks for

weather sensitive categories. Meanwhile, there is the potential for more inflation; this may Data Science & Applied AI

already be starting to flow through in commodities like motor oil. We are hearing some concerns Haviland Sheldahl-Thomason(iv)