APAC Economic Perspectives "Asia by the Numbers (May 2026)" Lim

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APAC Economic Perspectives "Asia by the Numbers (May 2026)" Lim

Global Research

14 May 2026ab

APAC Economic Perspectives Economics

AsiaAsia by the Numbers (May 2026)

Grace Lim

Economist

Relative growth divergence in Asia is widening grace-k.lim@ubs.com

+65-6495 5965

We expect Asia ex-Japan growth to moderate to 4.7% in 2026, from an above-trend

5.3% in 2025, with momentum easing into 2H 2026 (4.5% in 2H vs 5.1% in 1H). George Tharenou

EconomistInflation is projected to rise to 2.3% in 2026 from a historically low 0.9% in 2025—

george.tharenou@ubs.com

marking the highest since 2022, though still well below the 3.7% peak that year. Since +61-2-9324 3520

last month, we have lowered our regional growth forecast by around 20bp and raised

our inflation outlook by around 30bp. Growth dispersion across the region, relative to William Deng

each economy’s historical trend, is likely to widen further in the coming quarters. (Figure

william-w.deng@ubs.com

1Asia'sgrowthandinflationforecasts2026) +852-2971 6765

A key tailwind remains the strengthening tech cycle, particularly in North Asia, Tanvee Gupta Jain

where export performance has been robust. Growth forecasts for Taiwan Economist

(+110bp) and Korea (+60bp) have been revised up over the last month alongside tanvee.guptajain@ubs.com

surging tech exports. Similar dynamics are emerging in Malaysia, Thailand, and +91-22-6155 6070

Singapore, where the upswing is broadening beyond price effects into Yu Song

manufacturing output (Figure 4Tech-relatedmanufacturingIP) and, in some cases, investment—such as in Economist

Thailand, where capital goods imports linked to data centres are accelerating. S1460526010002

yu-za.song@ubs.com

China’s Q1 growth also came in stronger than expected. Domestic demand seems +86-10-5832 8508