European Logistics "UBS Evidence Lab inside: April DHL Express capacity ..."

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European Logistics "UBS Evidence Lab inside: April DHL Express capacity ..."

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European Logistics Equities

Europe including UKUBS Evidence Lab inside: April DHL Express

capacity +3% y/y - a return to growth after 21 Industrial

months Cristian Nedelcu,AnalystCFA

cristian.nedelcu@ubs.com

+44-20-7568 4375

UBS Evidence Lab transponder data Samuel Goldstone

Associate Analyst

UBS Evidence Lab uses dedicated freighter aircraft transponder data, in conjunction with samuel.goldstone@ubs.com

cargo payload data, to track air cargo capacity deployment across major trade lanes. We +44-20-7567 0338

are tracking on a weekly basis the dedicated freighter capacity development on major

Thomas Wadewitz

trade lanes as a proxy for demand (> Access Dataset). We discuss below the capacity

Analyst

deployment for the the full month of April: thomas.wadewitz@ubs.com

+1-212-713 6116

1. DHL Express capacity in April up ~3% y/y. We note April is the first month of y/y Sebastian Vogel, CFA

growth in capacity for DHL Express since July 2024. After 6-7% y/y declines in Analyst

TDI weights since the introduction of US tariffs, we believe the capacity deployment sebastian.vogel@ubs.com

data suggests potential y/y growth in weights in April. Zooming in we calculate +41-44 239 90 45

dedicated freighter capacity on intercontinental long haul routes is up ~6% for DHL y/y

(Fig. 1).

2. Airfreight capacity is up ~1% y/y in April. This compares with growth in

chargeable weights as per WorldACD of ~mid single digit y/y. Demand outgrowing

supply suggests a favourable environment for rates. We note according to the TAC index

global rates are ~36% higher y/y, with China-US rates ~46% higher than a year ago,

and China-Europe ~31% higher than a year ago.