Braskem SA-A: Weak cash flow visibility and liquidity concerns reinforce Underperform rating

研报英文原文证据摘录

Braskem SA-A: Weak cash flow visibility and liquidity concerns reinforce Underperform rating

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caio.ribeiro@bofa.com

Nicolas Barros >>We view the pre‑earnings rally with extreme caution

Research Analyst

Braskem’s share surged today by +29% ahead of its earnings on Wednesday – which Merrill Lynch (Brazil)

seemed unwarranted, in our view. We forecast Braskem to report EBITDA of US$292mn, nicolas.barros@bofa.com

driven by stronger spreads/volumes. Nevertheless, we believe investors will once again

closely monitor its cash generation. Despite the undeniable EBITDA recovery, we

forecast a cash burn in the quarter. This is mainly driven by a seasonal WK outflow Stock Data

(amplified by a 23% QoQ increase in naphtha prices), as well as seasonal bond interest

payments. Overall, we believe the upcoming results are likely to once again highlight the Price (Common / ADR) 9.20 BRL / 4.79 USD

company’s ongoing challenges in generating cash and sustaining a comfortable cash Price Objective 8.00 BRL / 3.20 USD

position above US$1 billion. In addition, it is worth to highlight that our high‑frequency Date Established 12-May-2026 / 12-May-

spread analysis has already shown early signs of near‑term normalization, with US PE- 2026

Naphtha and US PE-Ethane down about 35% and 15% from the YTD highs, respectively. Investment Opinion C-3-9 / C-3-9

52-Week Range 6.11 BRL - 13.78 BRL

Estimates (Dec) (BRL) 2024A 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E Market Value (mn) 7,334 BRL

EPS (15.12) (13.75) 4.35 (3.39) (7.91) Free Float 54.1%

EPS Change (YoY) -146.3% 9.1% NM NM -133.3% Average Daily Value 11.23 USD

Consensus EPS (Visible Alpha) (1.46) (2.94) (2.53)

Shares Outstanding (mn) 797.2 / 398.6

EPS (BAK - US$) (5.61) (4.92) 1.77 (1.38) (3.23)

Valuation (Dec) BofA Ticker / Exchange BAKAF / SAO