MTZ: Upgrading To Buy With $480 Price Target

研报英文原文证据摘录

MTZ: Upgrading To Buy With $480 Price Target

.3E 4.7E 4.7E 17.6E Communications segment. Cumulative free cash flow over the 2026-2028 period is

Prior 3.5 4.1E — 4.8E 17.1E projected at ~$3B. Our model forecasts revenues to reach $23B and EBITDA of $2.38B

in 2028. At current levels, MTZ is trading at approximately 24x 2026E EV/EBITDA, which 2027 4.6E 5.0E 5.4E 5.4E 20.2E

is ~2.5 turns above the peer group. We note that our valuation approach takes into Prior 4.5E 4.8E 5.1E 4.7E 19.1E

consideration future growth in 2027 and 2028 and believe this is not fully reflected in the

EPS ($) stock price. With significant margin expansion, strong revenue growth, and $5B+ in dry (FY DEC) 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q FY

powder for accretive M&A (derived from our estimated $3.25B in FCF generated through 2025 0.13 1.09 2.04 1.81 5.07

2028, plus an additional $2B in debt capacity), all underpinned by durable, multi-year 2026 0.77 1.75E 2.48E 1.94E 6.95E

demand drivers with high visibility, our confidence in MTZ has increased and believe a

Prior 0.56 1.56E 2.54E 1.97E 6.63E 2026E EV/EBITDA multiple of 26.8x and 2027E multiple of 21.4x is warranted, which

2027 1.68E 2.80E 3.47E 2.94E 10.88E underpins our price target of $480.

Prior 1.26E 2.46E 3.37E 2.47E 9.56E • Segment growth drivers: Pipeline Infrastructure and Clean Energy and

Infrastructure stands out. All four segments are targeting double-digit or higher organic

growth, and we would offer the following observations:

is the largest and most diversified segment. Market Data • Clean Energy & Infrastructure

52-Week Range $145.46 - $441.43 Management highlighted gas-fired power generation, a $5B active data center

Market Cap (M) $33,212 pipeline, $30B+ in civil infrastructure opportunity, and a growing Texas water