Evonik Industries: Model update post Q1s

研报英文原文证据摘录

Evonik Industries: Model update post Q1s

Deutsche Bank

Research

Rating Company Date

Hold Evonik Industries 15 May 2026

Forecast Change

Europe

Germany

Reuters Bloomberg Exchange Ticker Price at 14 May 2026 (EUR) 17.78

EVKn.DE EVK GR GER EVKn

Price Target (EUR) 16.00

Chemicals

ADR ISIN 52-week range (EUR) 20.60 - 12.62

Specialty Chemicals

EVKIY US3005031097

Model update post Q1s

Valuation & Risks

Virginie Boucher-Ferte

Model update post Q1s Research Analyst

We have updated our model post Q1 results and increased our FY26 EBITDA +33-1-4495-5934

forecast by 3% to €1.921bn (4% above the midpoint of company guidance). This

Tristan Lamotte

reflects the Q1 beat and expected strong performance in Q2 (management expects Research Analyst

adj. EBITDA of at least €550m), driven by higher volumes and prices, especially in +44-20-7547-1862

methionine. This led us to increase our 2026 EPS forecast by 9% (further supported

Saurabh Mehndiratta

by lower D&A). For 2027-28, we have reduced our EBITDA estimates by 4-5% due

Research Associate

to anticipated normalization in the methionine market (due to new capacity) and

reduced our EPS forecast by 3-5%, partially offset by lower D&A. However, we have

increased our long-term margin assumptions, leading us to increase our target Rajiv Dalal

price to €16/share (from €15/share previously). The stock trades at 14.0x 26E P/E, Research Associate

6.7x 26E EV/EBITDA, and 5% 26E FCF yield, which is broadly in line with its peers'

average and looks fair. Hold. For more details on Q1 results, refer to our note titled Dimitri Druart

"Solid Q1s; H1 supported by ME tailwinds. H2 risks, FY guide unchanged". Research Associate

+33-1-4495-5937

Valuation

Key changes

We set our target price using a DCF analysis. Our assumptions include a WACC of