Model Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Model Update

TD Cowen W. R. Berkley Corporation

Global Research May 13, 2026

AT A GLANCE

Our Investment Thesis Forthcoming Catalysts

WRB’s fundamentals appear to be decelerating while valuation remains elevated versus peers, • 2Q26 earnings

leaving the stock vulnerable to downside from current levels. We expect net written premium

growth to decelerate to ~3.4% CAGR from 2025 to 2027, compared with 6% in 2025 and 9% • Monthly E&S lines stamping office premium

in 2024, as pricing tailwinds fade and competition intensifies. We also project the combined data

ratio to rise to ~92.0% in 2026E and ~92.2% in 2027E, up from 90.7% in 2025, higher loss-cost

inflation. Reserve uncertainty—particularly in Other Liability Occurrence and Commercial Auto

—adds further risk to forward earnings.

Base Case Assumptions Upside Scenario Downside Scenario

• Sustain 3.4%+net written premiums CAGR • Lower-than-expected growth in net written • Higher-than-expected growth in net written

from 2025 to 2027 premiums premiums

• Elevated social and loss-cost inflation to • Worsening social and loss-cost inflation • Improving social and loss-cost inflation

pressure margins

Price Performance Company Description

Founded in 1967 and headquartered in Greenwich, CT, W.R. Berkley Corporation (WRB) is a

$85

global property and casualty insurance holding company that predominantly underwrites

specialty commercial lines. Excess & surplus (E&S) lines comprise approximately one-third

80 of WRB's net written premiums, according to management. WRB became a publicly traded

company in November 1973, and has risen to become a $20+ billion market cap insurance

75 corporation. The company operates in two segments, Insurance and Reinsurance & Monoline

Excess.

65 Analyst Top Picks