Makeup Sell In v Sell Out a Cause For Concern?

研报英文原文证据摘录

Makeup Sell In v Sell Out a Cause For Concern?

Spain | Food & HPC

PUIG EquityMayResearch11, 2026

TARGET CHANGEMakeup Sell In v Sell Out a Cause For

RATING BUYConcern?

PRICE €17.40^

We update post the 1Q26 sales release. Puig beat expectations again, driven

by fragrance and makeup. We worry about the sustainability of the latter's PRICE TARGET | % TO PT €20.50 (€20.00) | +18%

momentum, given the disconnected sell in and sell out. We model makeup 52W HIGH-LOW €18.89 - €13.11

to decline c5% in 2H26 vs cons +2.4%. This assumes the co will work back to FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD) 22.3% | 15.56

equilibrium in sell in v sell out by YE. The Middle East conflict is expected to MARKET CAP €9.8B | €9.8B

be a 1.4% drag on 2Q group growth. Our PT implies 17.5x valuation. Retain TICKER PUIG SM ^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise

Buy. noted.

Fragrance slowing but innovation pipeline will help. We expect fragrance to slow to 4% LFL FY (Dec) CHANGE TO JEFe JEF vs CONS

in 1H26 (v cons 3.7%). This then picks up as comps soften in 2H26e (5.4% v cons 4.9%). This 2026 2027 2026 2027

reflects (i) 2H weighted innovation pipeline and (ii) continued expansion of the niche fragrance REV* NM NM NM -1%

portfolio. Puig will be launching its first feminine fragrance by Jean Paul Gautier in ten years,

EPS* NA NM NA NA

and Rabanne's 1Million and Invictus in 2H. This comps against just the La Bomba launch last

year, suggesting the segment should accelerate. We also expect Niche to continue contributing

2026 (€) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY

well to growth. It remains a small part of the fragrance portfolio, but with plenty of white space

EPS* -- -- -- -- 1.07

runway.

PREV

Makeup sell out should catch up sell in by year-end. Makeup growth since 3Q25 has been *Rev. (MM) *Adj EPS