CON: CON 1Q demonstrates resilience across macro and seasonal headwinds

研报英文原文证据摘录

CON: CON 1Q demonstrates resilience across macro and seasonal headwinds

took effect March 1st will drive a meaningful tailwind for EBITDA Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

the remainder of 2026. Management raised FY26 guidance, and now 2025 102.7A 115.0A 118.9A 95.3A

targets net leverage below 3.0x by year-end. 2026 120.7E 123.7E 124.6E 100.7E

• CON demonstrates resilience against macro uncertainty. A key concern Prev. 110.4E 123.8E 124.7E 101.3E

among investors has been the sensitivity of CON's employer services Revenue 2025 500.8A 550.8A 572.8A 539.1A

volumes to broader labor market conditions. While employer services 2026 569.6E 586.8E 599.9E 568.0E

visit growth moderated to 4.8%, workers' comp, which represents Prev. 558.8E 580.7E 596.9E 564.6E

approximately two-thirds of center revenue and carries significantly All values in USD unless otherwise noted.

higher contribution margins, grew visits 9.6% in the quarter. CON's highly Priced as of prior trading day's market close, EST (unless otherwise noted).

diversified employer customer base, with no meaningful concentration

in any single industry or geography, further insulates demand. CON's

volume resilience through a prolonged period of labor market softness

and heightened geopolitical uncertainty is, in our view, reflective of the

structural rather than cyclical nature of occupational health demand

• Concentra has natural self-hedge against seasonal disruption. Weather

events that weighed on other providers in 1Q26 had a more nuanced

and likely net positive effect on CON. While CON did experience

center closures across some of its markets, management was aggressive

in reopening centers. Critically, the same weather events that drove

closures also generated elevated slip and fall injury volume, particularly