MEDLINE INC. (=) : Geopolitical, regulatory impact, Opex invts. offset execution

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MEDLINE INC. (=) : Geopolitical, regulatory impact, Opex invts. offset execution

EQUITIES

MEDTECH & SERVICES

MEDLINE INC. NEUTRALPRICE* USD38.7  TARGET PRICE USD40 (UPSIDE 3%) TARGET -18%PRICE EPS10%26e EPS 5%27e

Geopolitical, regulatory impact, Opex invts. offset execution

We had a follow-up with Medline’s CFO following 1Q26. We remain Neutral on the view that growth13 MAY 2026

Securities Research Report and (long-term) margin expansion, driven by the PV model and MB mix-shift, are reflected in shares.

Production time: 23:45* (London time)

Research Analysts & Publishing Entities Medicaid cuts and ACA adjustments to weigh on hospital utilization and procedure volumes

Navann Ty, CFA Medline is expecting some moderation in hospital utilization and procedure volumes towards the

BNP Paribas Securities Corp1 back end of the year (in guidance), as a result of OBBBA actions and ACA adjustments. Customers

+(1) 917 749 7734

navann.ty@us.bnpparibas.com are well aware of the dynamics, and have started looking for ways to reduce costs, which could be

a potential offset for Medline Brand, in our view. The company also highlighted that patients pushing

Curtis Moiles

off hospital visits due to the regulatory changes could end up in the emergency room or with a chronicBNP Paribas Securities Corp1

(+1) 646 544 1659 condition, essentially pushing hospital admissions to a later date (netting out the impact).

curtis.moiles@us.bnpparibas.com

Margin expansion to be partially held back by the ME conflict, continued investments

Guidance accounts for some favorability on tariffs, assuming the 10% rate continues through mid-

year before increasing to rates before the SCOTUS decision. We understand lower cost inventory

should start showing in the P&L in 2Q26E.