FSZ: In-line quarter; Max Menard returns to the helm

研报英文原文证据摘录

FSZ: In-line quarter; Max Menard returns to the helm

Fiera Capital

Target/Upside/Downside Scenarios Investment summary

Fiera’s 3-year strategic plan under new CEO Maxime MenardFiera Capital

focused on specialized distribution, improving performance,

12 125 Weeks 19DEC23 - 08MAY26 growing Private Markets, streamlining costs, and capital

11 allocation is in its early days which presents execution risk.

9 75% of FCF earmarked for de-leveraging & NCIB constrains

8 investing for growth. We have a neutral view of Fiera’s Private

TARGETTARGET 6.006.00 6 CURRENTCURRENT 5.735.73 Markets business given each strategy is sub-scale and are

5 cautious on Fiera’s Public Markets business given persistent

3 outflows and recently deteriorating performance particularly

2 in equities.

8m

6m

4m 2m Key potential catalysts include the following:

2024 2025 2026

D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D

J F M A M i) Generating consistently positive net sales in Public Markets FSZ CN Rel. S&P/TSX COMP IDX MA 40 weeks

Source: Bloomberg and RBC Capital Markets estimates for Target business

Valuation ii) Progress towards 30% EBITDA Margin target, including

Our CAD $6.00/share price target is based on applying a 6.3x further details on new CEO’s business plan related to

P/E multiple to our blended 2027E and 2028E adjusted EPS streamlining/simplifying the business

forecast.

iii) Reduced financial leverage towards management’s

We note Fiera’s cumulative reported EPS over the last 10 years targeted 2.5x net debt ratio

of $2 is below adjusted EPS of $12. On reported EPS, our target

implies 19x. iv) Continued scaling of Private Markets business helping

preserve stable fee rates

The target multiple is below the North American peer average,