RUN: Playing Offense

研报英文原文证据摘录

RUN: Playing Offense

2.2A 626.7E 663.6E 630.8E

operational control and results in stronger customer credit profiles and Prev. 564.3E 627.4E 664.3E 631.4E

higher margins. We believe this coupled with a recovery in customer EPS, Rpt Diluted

additions translates to increasing cash generation next year. 2025 0.19A 1.07A 0.06A 0.38A 2026 0.62A 0.31E 0.45E 0.24E

Prev. 0.09E 0.39E 0.55E 0.33E

Improvements in tax equity. Tightness in the tax equity market continues

as industry waits for additional clarity, but mgmt indicated they have seen AllPricedvaluesas ofin priorUSD unlesstradingotherwiseday's marketnoted.close, EST (unless otherwise noted).

a modest recovery from last qtr, and we think this could mean upside to

the cash gen forecast. Every cent in tax credit transfer pricing translates to

~$25mm of cash generation. In late 2025 pricing was in the high $0.80s

on the dollar due to the demand slowdown vs the typical low $0.90s that

RUN sees. The 2026 cash gen guide of $250-$450mm was provided when

tax credit transfer pricing was down a couple cents vs current levels and

accordingly could bias cash generation above midpoint of guide.

Customer value and margin expansion. Contracted net subscriber value

of $6.1k (11% margin) was down ~11% q/q on higher creation costs

despite higher gross value. RUN is benefiting from larger systems and

higher storage attach rates (73% up 2pp q/q) but this is being offset by

its monetization strategy, higher customer acquisition costs, and overhead

costs. All else equal, we believe customer value should grow through the

year as the company focuses on and scales its direct biz.

Managing exposure to industry financial challenges. RUN's partnership

with Freedom Forever has declined in volume the last three years, and they