OIL & GAS : IEA May OMR: Inventory draw figures likely do not reflect the real story

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OIL & GAS : IEA May OMR: Inventory draw figures likely do not reflect the real story

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OIL & GAS

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IEA May OMR: Inventory draw figures likely do not reflect the real story

13 MAY 2026 Sector Research Report Production time: 10:27* (London time)

Research Analyst & Publishing Entities

Eva Xenios BNP Paribas London Branch (+44) 203 430 8602 eva.x.xenios@uk.bnpparibas.com

The International Energy Agency has just published its monthly Oil Market Report, taking down its global oil

demand forecast down further to -420kb/d decline in 2026 as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. In the report,

the IEA assumes oil flows through the Strait gradually resume from June 2026.

The report points to cumulative supply losses from Gulf producers of more than 1 billion barrels, offset

somewhat by higher exports from the Atlantic Basin (US, Canada, Brazil and others elsewhere including

Russia). For the year as a whole, the IEA now expects global oil supply to decline by -3.9mb/d on average in

2026 compared to 3.1mb/d of supply growth in 2025.

The IEA points to c. 4mb/d equivalent of inventory draw since the start of the conflict. However, given the c.

10mb/d of supply loss, we expect that it’s highly unlikely that a 5-6mb/d of demand destruction has gone

unnoticed by the economy – for some context, c. 2mb/d of oil demand was lost during the Global Financial

Crisis. We therefore expect the IEA’s inventory figures are not reflective of the full picture, likely due to

incomplete non-OECD data. Our estimates point to nearer 8mb/d of inventory draws, with the balance met by

the release of some strategic reserves as well as some demand rationing.

Demand:

• As the Middle East conflict continues, the IEA now forecasts global oil demand to fall by 420kb/d in 2026,