OKLO (-) : Focus on the Fuel, Still

研报英文原文证据摘录

OKLO (-) : Focus on the Fuel, Still

EQUITIES

UTILITIES & CLEAN ENERGY

OKLO UNDERPERFORMPRICE* USD73.6  TARGET PRICE USD14 (DOWNSIDE 81%)

FLASH NOTE

Focus on the Fuel, Still

13 MAY 2026 Securities Research Report Production time: 02:44* (London time)

Research Analyst & Publishing Entities

Moses Sutton BNP Paribas Securities Corp (1) (+1) 646 342 2181 moses.sutton@us.bnpparibas.com

What happened?

At a sustained >$10 bn market cap, OKLO has successfully ridden the wave of government funding announcements,

deregulation tailwinds, and broader AI outperformance. We credit management with being on the frontline of cutting

red-tape and seeking near-term revenue sources through the isotope business. These, along with the INL plant, are

becoming well-known aspects of the business. From here, the bull/bear case rests on bringing the Meta deal to life.

This is forcing fuel to be front-and-center. Street will underwrite the plutonium opportunity, but as we remind below,

fresh HALEU is story ‘A’ for GW-scale until recycling is ready for primetime.

Keeping Our Eyes on the Central Fuel Path:

Discussions about plutonium bridge fuels can be had, but we are still many steps from seeing (at least from our seat) a

path to fuel in hand. There are allocations to be made, NRC discussions to be had, and infrastructure to be built. But in

terms of the path of least resistance, Centrus (not covered) remains the best option. And this goes beyond Oklo. If each

HALEU-based reactor wants GW-scale on a meaningful timeframe, Centrus will need to meet the moment, full stop.

Currently operational, Centrus has ~0.8 MT/yr of HALEU capacity under the DOE demonstration program, using a

partial cascade (1/10th the size of full). This involves taking already enriched LEU (from Centrus’ legacy LEU segment)